Election Day: What will ranked choice bring?

By STEVE BRANDT, Star Tribune

Last update: November 3, 2009


Minneapolis voters go to the polls today to tackle ranked-choice voting, a new method of filling municipal offices, amidst uncertainty over the effect it could have on the final results.

City election officials didn't predict a turnout figure for the city's first election without a primary to winnow the field of candidates. But while the most prominent election of the day, the mayor's race, is not considered close, city officials offered conflicting opinions about whether the new method would stimulate voting or discourage it.

Voters will be asked to rank their first-, second- and third-choice candidates for each office, but not when they are voting yes or no on a charter amendment.

Although the results should be fairly evident in lopsided races, it could be weeks before a victor is known in contests where nobody achieves the required number of votes on first choices. Then the more complicated hand sorting of second and third choices will be required to declare a winner. That's where rankings of candidates could be the most influential.

While turnout remains a big question, city officials said they'll have 230,000 blank ballots -- one for every registered voter in the city.

The turnout for city general elections in the past 20 years has varied considerably. In 1993, when Sharon Sayles Belton defeated John Derus to become the city's first woman and first black mayor, more than 103,000 residents voted in the election. But in 1989, the last election in which an incumbent mayor faced such low-profile opposition, the turnout was just over 56,000.

The election will be watched beyond Minneapolis, as St. Paul voters decide whether to approve ranked-choice voting for their city. Their decision has implications for Minneapolis, according to interim Election Director Patrick O'Connor.

That's because demand determines the willingness of companies to develop vote-counting products that could automate the hand-counting process now required to handle voter choices. The more Minnesota cities using similar ranked-choice voting laws, the more willing equipment manufacturers will be to supply that market for the 2013 election, O'Connor said.

Raw results from Minneapolis voting will be posted on the Secretary of State's website but ought to be viewed with caution, O'Connor said. That's because the threshold for determining the winner in each race won't be determined until after election night, making it hard to be sure if a candidate has the necessary votes.

Overwhelming leaders on first-choice votes should be safe, but if nobody reaches the threshold, second- or third-choice votes have the ability to propel a lower-ranked candidate ahead of those leading in the first round.

Ranked-choice voting was approved by Minneapolis voters in 2006 and survived a legal challenge. That challenge was based on the potential harm the system could cause to voting, and thus faced a high legal bar.

A spokesman for the Minnesota Voters Alliance, which brought that challenge, said it plans another legal challenge based on how the method is applied in actual voting and counting, which would face a lower legal threshold.

Steve Brandt • 612-673-4438